PP Presentation

Modeling the AIDS Epidemic in the United States

Overview

General Models for Epidemics

Exponential Model

Logistic Model

Assumptions in the Logistic Model

Background of AIDS

Stages of AIDS

Problems with the General Models and AIDS

Graph of Doubling Times

Six Steps In Generating Model for AIDS Epidemic

Latency Period

Growth Rate of AIDS

Heterogeneous Behavior

Growth in a Single Risk Group

Saturation Wave

Cubic Growth of AIDS

Estimates of HIV Infections and AIDS Cases

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