Mayoral Race Looks Interesting
By Sean Evans, Chair and Professor of Political Science
Sep 12, 2014 -
It is a rare event when a popular incumbent faces a difficult reelection race. However State Senator Lowe Finney’s recent announcement that he will challenge Jackson Mayor Jerry Gist is one such race.
At the outset, Mayor Gist has several built-in advantages. First, Gist is at every local event, is a tireless booster for the city, and well-liked by all who meet him. Second, Gist knows the city and its needs after serving as parks and recreation director and public works director before serving as mayor for seven years. Third, he has a good record. Gist has run the city efficiently with no tax increases despite the economic downturn, can point to several building projects, and has contributed to a positive business environment.
Yet, Gist faces some challenges. First, crime is the major issue right now and with the increase in crime in Jackson this year, he is likely to be held responsible. Second, he lacks a signature achievement as mayor and many of his transportation successes come from state funding for which Senator Finney can claim some credit.
Third, Gist will face his first competitive election since he defeated John Newman for Madison County Mayor in 2002. After three easy elections as Madison County and Jackson Mayor, Gist needs to revitalize, if not recreate, his campaign organization to get out the vote and raise at least $100,000, more if there is a runoff.
Finney has the advantage here as he faced two difficult elections and anticipated his most difficult campaign this year before deciding not to run for reelection. Moreover, Finney raised over $300,000 for his 2010 reelection campaign and can transfer the $60,000 in his state senate campaign account to his mayoral campaign while Mayor Gist has $2800 in his campaign account.
Fourth, Mayor Gist seems to be healthy and ready for the campaign but at 72 the energy and effort required for a very competitive election will tax Gist more.
However, Finney faces his own challenges. First, Finney has had a larger constituency than just the city of Jackson and will have to get to know the city much better and familiarize himself with city issues.
Second, city elections are very different from legislative campaigns. Citizens know and care less about city elections resulting in low turnout. In his previous elections, high profile statewide campaigns and the Democratic Party got voters to the polls. He can no longer rely on that. While Finney probably can rely on Democratic voter databases to help identify supporters, he needs to build a broader coalition to win.
Third, Finney’s Democratic party identification may actually hurt, more than help, him. While he could usually rely on Democratic groups to support him, Gist also has strong ties to many of these groups which cancels out Finney’s advantage.
Moreover, North Jackson usually has higher turnout than traditionally Democratic precincts. Finney’s rating as the second most liberal State Senator will probably hurt him in these more Republican areas, especially if no Republican runs.
For a Republican like Charles Byrd or Mark Johnstone to win, he needs to make a runoff, preferably against Finney because Gist can better consolidate Democratic voters and reach into the GOP base with his pro-business and fiscally responsible record. Regardless, the runoff would be about mobilizing more of one’s supporters in a low turnout runoff.
This column originally appeared in the Sept. 12th edition of The Jackson Sun