Who's Going to Run in 2016
By Sean Evans, Chair and Professor of Political Science
Feb 21, 2015 -
With over 20 Republicans expressing an interest in the White House and no clear frontrunner, who has the best chance to win the presidential nomination in 2016?
Currently, candidates are running in the invisible primary to impress the political elites in two ways. First, candidates try to secure a base in one of the wings of the party while demonstrating acceptability to the rest of the party. Second, candidates raise money, create media attention, and hire a strong campaign team to demonstrate their political strength and viability. Based on the elite assessment that the media reports, candidates are able to raise additional money, push competitors out and consolidate their support, and increase their poll standing.
To understand these dynamics, remember that there are four major pillars of the GOP. The pro-business wing supports economic growth, the social conservative wing is concerned with abortion and family policy, the national security wing desires strong international leadership by the U.S., and the populist wing is composed of Tea Partiers and libertarians who desire a more confrontational and ideologically pure party.
Historically, the pro-business wing is most important because most donors and the average Republican voter belongs to it. Unsurprisingly, the nominee usually comes from this wing.
Moreover, the business, social conservative, and national security wings are important enough that they can veto candidates to protect party orthodoxy in economic, social, and foreign policy.
The populist wing is the smallest wing (but is growing fastest), has the most extreme candidates, and differs from other wings in that it defines itself in opposition to one or more of the other wings. For these reasons, its potential to block a potential nominee is doubtful.
Looking at the current field, we already see the field sorting itself out. Jeb Bush is winning the pro-business wing due to Chris Christie’s troubles and opposition from social conservatives and populists.
Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Ben Carson are competing for social conservative support but they have little support in the other wings.
While Ted Cruz and Rand Paul are competing for the populist mantle, Paul has the advantage due to the built-in support from his father’s previous campaigns. However, significant segments of the other three wings oppose him.
This opposition provides an opportunity for Cruz, a social conservative, to rally the populist and social conservative wings but the business wing absolutely abhors Cruz.
This calculus makes the race really between Bush and the fusionists. The fusionists, such as the governors and Senator Marco Rubio, are acceptable to every wing but not the leading candidate of any wing. Being second choice presents obstacles but if candidates in one wing falter, these candidates can gain that wing’s support and advance.
Right now, the populist wing is trying to veto Bush over his family pedigree, Common Core, and immigration but they may fail. However if Bush stumbles, the pro-business wing will probably support Rubio as the most gifted and most electable candidate remaining. If the populist wing candidates fade soon enough, Governors Scott Walker or Rick Perry, as the most viable conservative candidates, are likely to gain their support.
Through debate and fundraising performances, the field will eventually sort itself out leaving 3-4 serious candidates and several also-rans. And this time next year, a governor or Floridian will probably be racing toward the nomination.
This column originally appeared in the Feb. 20th edition of The Jackson Sun