Winners and Losers from GOP Debate
By Sean Evans, Chair and Professor of Political Science
Aug 7, 2015 -
Last night, the Republican candidates for president met in Cleveland for the first Republican debate of the 2016 presidential election season. As soon as the debate was over, the instant analysis began with the list of winners and losers. While I think that one debate will not change the course of the election, I think there are some people who helped themselves more than others. My winners are Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, and John Kasich, primarily because they exceeded expectations and got free publicity when they desperately need it. My losers are Donald Trump, Rand Paul, and Scott Walker.
Winners
Carly Fiorina: I will admit that I did not watch the first debate and so cannot comment on her performance. So why am I listing her here? Simple. Everyone was talking about her after the first debate, they even talked about her after the main debate, and everyone was talking about her this morning. Moreover, I have never seen a poll where c. 85% of the people thought that one person won the debate. Fiorina has been given a chance to get her message out, raise money, and convince people she is viable. A chance is more than she had before the first debate so that is a win.
Chris Christie: Christie was involved in the first real moment of the debate when he and Rand Paul got into a tussle over the government’s surveillance programs. Rand Paul might have had a better argument a few years ago with his more isolationist policies but the rise of ISIS makes his position less popular among GOP voters. Christie made the better argument and even had a better comeback then Paul’s Obama hug comment with Christie talking about the only hugs he remembers are those who lost loved ones after 9/11. Second, Christie had NJ’s record cast in the worse possible light and was able to turn lemons into lemonade. Finally, Christie seemed to get more time than this position in the polls would indicate. The fact that he got to make conservative arguments and people remember them should help him, at least temporarily, with Republican and conservative voters.
Marco Rubio: Rubio is clearly the best speaker and was inspirational when he spoke. He also got some good digs in on Clinton. While he did not wow, he seemed to wow enough people that they were talking about his performance after the debate. Since he has slowly lost ground since he announced, his debate performance was a reminder of why people think he has a future and may give him a chance to get another second look. His big problem is still that he is everyone’s second choice. Without becoming anyone’s first choice, he will struggle to win a state or come close to make it very far.
John Kasich: Kasich has the advantage that Christie had in that he seemed to be more present in the debate than his position in the polls would indicate and he came off rather well. He was challenged for expanding Medicare and made the argument how it could save money. He was also able to use his faith argument to appeal to social conservatives to expand his base beyond the establishment. His comment about loving everyone because of God’s love for him was good for how to deal with the same sex marriage argument though not all social conservatives will appreciate it. Finally, he got to list his background which is quite impressive (Chair of House Budget Committee that balanced the budget, business, Governor, etc.).
Neither winner nor loser
Jeb Bush: Steady, came across as presidential, and got to express his conservative bonafides but rather bland compared to the field.
Mike Huckabee: Good zingers but who will support Huckabee after tonight who wasn’t for him already?
Ted Cruz: Just didn’t seem to be that involved in the debate. He gave his answers and they were boilerplate Cruz. But like Huckabee, who is for him that wasn’t already for him? I am not sure he expanded beyond his conservative base.
Ben Carson: He is not ready for the presidency. He couldn’t answer policy questions directly and his closing statement was great as theatre but it doesn’t convince anyone that he is ready to sit behind the resolute desk (why does neurosurgery perepare you for the White House?). His supporters love him for who he is but who else will support him?
Losers
Donald Trump: He got off to a bad start. Saying that he would not support the GOP nominee and possibly run as a third party candidate will hurt him among Republican voters because that would guarantee a Democratic victory. The interaction with Megyn Kelly also hurt him. He says inappropriate things about women and then challenges Kelly, who is universally liked and respected by the right (male and female). You can't win the nomination or election if you alienate half of the electorate. Second, he could not provide proof that Mexico is dumping criminals in the US and really never gave a policy answer to anything. Third, claiming that his contributions get him things (like Hillary attending his wedding) makes him look more like a crony capitalist and less like an outsider. Overall, Trump is a little like Christie personality wise. I have always thought that Christie in small doses would go over well but a consistent dose of NJ would not. Trump is in a similar position to Christie. They like bluster but it well wear thin over time.
Rand Paul: Paul was aggressive in attacking opponents but seemed to lose each interaction whether it was Trump saying “you’re not doing that well down there” or Christie coming back with his hug with families of 9/11 victims. Many stories have been written about the problems of the Paul campaign with the indictment of the head of his Super Pac this week the most recent. His debate performance will continue the media narrative of “what went wrong with Paul.” Moreover, he came off as a little petulant with his attacks on everyone. He is already the #1 Twitter troll and his performance last night makes him look more bully than presidential. Finally, Paul is “a different kind of Republican” and the GOP does need to reach more voters but the Paul difference, at least last night, is not going to expand his support beyond his already narrow base.
Scott Walker: Walker is one of the three candidates that most people think has a chance of winning the nomination (with Bush and Rubio). But he is also the one that people have the most concerns with. The establishment and talking class’s big knock has been that Walker is not ready. If you look at his answer, or more appropriately non-answers, to the abortion and Russia question, he did not convince people that he is ready to be president. Moreover, he was a little bland in a stage of personalities. While there may be enough voters who like Walker, that is not the audience that he has to woo. The establishment controls the keys to the nomination and many have liked the Walker profile. But last night’s performance is giving them no reason to abandon Bush or believe that Walker is a better alternative than Rubio. For this reason, last night was not a good night for Walker.
