Trump and the Middle American Radical
By Sean Evans, Chair and Professor of Political Science
Oct 23, 2015 -
If you want to understand Donald Trump’s political success, you need to realize that he is the heir of the populist tradition of George Wallace and Ross Perot that seeks to protect a middle class under siege.
In a recent article in National Journal, John Judis argues that Trump supporters resemble those who sociologist Donald Warren called Middle American Radicals (MARS). MARS are middle and lower middle class white voters who lack college degrees and work in mostly blue collar and low skill white collar jobs. These individuals defy ideological stereotypes as they are neither liberal nor conservative. Like liberals, they are deeply suspicious of big business and support entitlement programs that serve everyone like Medicare and Social Security. Yet at the same time, they hold conservative positions on race, crime, and anti-poverty programs. The unifying idea behind these voters is that the political and economic system is rigged in favor of the rich and the poor and that the middle class is being left behind.
From this perspective, you can see how Trump’s policy positions reflect these voters. Trump opposes the crony capitalism that led to the bailout of the banks and auto industry and supports raising taxes on hedge fund managers. He opposes cuts to Social Security and Medicare to make it solvent. He wants to build a wall to stop immigrants who commit crimes and whose cheap labor drive down the wages of middle class workers. He attacks Obamacare which was sold as a solution to middle class anxieties when it primarily benefits the poor while raising health care costs for middle class workers. Finally, Trump supports nationalist policies by wanting to renegotiate trade deals and punish China for currency manipulation so he can return and protect blue collar jobs.
Trump also reflects the solution that MARS voters prefer – a strong leader at the top. Trump is a successful businessman who blames America’s trouble on “stupid politicians” who get out-negotiated by everyone. As the author of The Art of the Deal, he will hire smart people and make good deals and improve the country through the force of his leadership. To top it off, he stands above the political field because he is so rich that lobbyists and interest groups can never buy him.
Historically, Judis notes that the rise of MARS occur when there is a sense of national decline and distrust of political leaders. Trump’s campaign slogan that he will “make American great again” speaks to these two factors. Wages are stagnant but Wall Street thrives because government bailed out Wall Street but not Main Street. Instead, MARS see Obama giving health care to the poor, citizenship to illegal immigrants, and marriage rights to homosexual while the middle class suffers. The Republicans are no better because they have failed to deliver their promise to repeal Obamacare, balance the budget, and reign in Obama’s executive actions.
Since MARS make up about 30-35% of the Republican electorate and Trump does best among these voters, it is easy to see how he leads the field in such a crowded Republican field. However, his ability to win the nomination is limited by his lack of appeal outside of MARS voters. As the field winnows, the rest of the party will probably rally around a more traditional candidate and deny Trump the nomination.