What Can We Expect in 2016?
By Sean Evans, Chair and Professor of Political Science
Jan 4, 2016 -
2016 was a topsy-turvy political year as we saw Democrats coronate Hillary Clinton as their nominee, President Obama avoid lame duck status, and the GOP grassroots revolting against the GOP establishment through the rise of Donald Trump and the forced resignation of Speaker John Boehner. Moving toward 2016, what might we expect?
First, Trump will not win the GOP nomination. Trump’s supporters are less educated and thus less likely to go to the polls. Consequently, Trump’s electoral results will be lower than his poll numbers. With a likely Cruz victory in Iowa due to his strong evangelical support, the Trump bubble will burst. Moreover, establishment candidates, like Bush, Christie, and Kasich, are the likely first ones to drop out and their supporters are less likely to move toward Trump. Trump’s only real chance of winning is a large multi-candidate field continuing throughout the nomination campaign so the anti-Trump coalition cannot rally behind one candidate.
Second, the Republicans will nominate the first Latino for president. Ted Cruz, the anti-establishment candidate, is running the most traditional campaign by rallying conservative leaders, raising money from small donors, using data to identify and motivate his core support, making himself acceptable to Trump and Carson supporters, and organizing for a long campaign. With a win in Iowa, he should win or place a close second in South Carolina. Then he hopes to use a strong showing in the SEC primary to be the momentum candidate and sweep the remaining states or be the only viable anyone-but-Trump candidate that the establishment has to support.
Alternatively, Marco Rubio is the candidate with the most favorable ratings of any Republican making him acceptable to all party factions. He needs a strong showing in New Hampshire to knock out the establishment candidates so the establishment rallies behind him. Next, he needs to win Nevada and do well in the SEC primary. After the SEC primary, there are more winner-take-all primary states and these states tend to be more moderate which should allow him to take the lead in the delegate race.
Third, Republicans should win the presidency unless they nominate Trump or Cruz. In general election match-ups, Clinton is around 45% against each Republican not named Trump. This number is important because Clinton has universal name recognition and falling short of 50% this early suggests the public basically prefers someone else. Moreover, her poll ratings basically reflect Obama’s presidential approval rating which indicates Democrats support her but Independents are looking for change. To win, Clinton will have to demonize her Republican opponent and this task will be easier against the bombastic Trump or ideologically extreme Cruz.
Fourth, the Republicans will keep the House but the Democrats will pick up seats in the Senate. Democrats should win Senate seats in Democratic Illinois and Wisconsin while the Democrat’s recruitment of credible, well-funded candidates give them even odds in Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Democrats are only vulnerable in Nevada and potentially Colorado with the right candidate. Since recent Senate elections have followed the presidential results, the presidential race should determine which party controls the Senate.
Finally, after years of liberals winning the big cases (e.g., Obamacare, same sex marrage), the Supreme Court should please conservatives by further limiting affirmative action in higher education, limiting the ability of public sector unions to collect money from non-members, upholding surgical center requirements for abortion clinics, and protecting the religious liberty rights of faith based institutions that object to the Obamacare contraception mandate. In the past, Justice Kennedy, the traditional swing vote, has voted consistently against affirmative action, has a strong pro-business record, and has upheld health and safety regulations on abortion which should affect his votes in these cases. In the Little Sisters of the Poor case, Justice Kennedy is unlikely to vote against the nuns as the fact patterns is very favorable to conservatives.
A slightly revised version of this column originally appeared in the January 1, 2016 edition of The Jackson Sun