Trump and Cruz "Win" in New Hampshire
By Sean Evans, Chair and Professor of Political Science
Feb 10, 2016 -
The big winners out of New Hampshire last night were Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. The Donald is the winner because he came in frist and doubled the vote of his closest competitor. Cruz won because the establishment did not consolidate behind a candidate making him the most likely "anyone but Trump" candidate for Republican voters.
The loser was clearly the “establishment.” Why? The establishment support needs to consolidate behind one candidate and the fact that Rubio came in 5th means that the other establishment candidates will continue in the race (minus Christie). Think of it this way, the establishment candidates behind one candidate would have garnered 45% in NH and would be at 27% in South Carolina ahead of Cruz (20%) and near Trump (36%), according to Real Clear Politics (RCP) data. With the establishment support continued to be divided among multiple candidates, Trump and Cruz will continue to do well and wrack up delegates and wins and strong showings. The distance between those two and the others will be hard to overcome mathematically and psychologically.
Can the establishment rally behind one candidate? John Kasich had a big win last night. He invested all his electoral eggs in the New Hampshire basket and came in second. He has little money left and no organization. He currently polls around 2% in SC. He needs more than a bump to be competitive. He needs a title wave of voter, donor, and activist support to remain in the race. Unfortunately, running as a moderate in NH makes it more difficult to do well in the more conservative states coming up next (SC and South).
Jeb Bush? Bush and his SuperPAC spent $15M (SuperPAC only – don’t have Jeb campaign expenditure #s) in Iowa and a combined $36M in NH to come in 6th in IA (2.8%) and 4th in NH (11%). With that kind of money, he should have much better results. The Republican electorate has decided that they do not want a Bush. Bush is not getting the message though. Bush is in 4th in SC according to Real Clear Politics poll of polls, just slightly behind Rubio. Unfortunately, Trump is at 36, Cruz at 20, Rubio at 13, and Bush at 10. The distance between 2 and 3rd could be narrowed if the establishment rallied. Bush has an organization in SC, still has a well-funded SuperPac and is bringing in his brother, George W., to rally veterans and military personnel (of which there are a lot in SC). I doubt that his results will be such that he drops out before the SEC primary which further depletes the establishment wing vote and aids Trump and Cruz.
Chris Christie? Christie got a win last night. He knocked Rubio from 2nd and prevented him from consolidating the establishment vote. However, Kasich was the beneficiary and not him. Christie peeked in NH months ago and is out because he has no money and no organization elsewhere.
That leave us with Marco Rubio. Rubio went for the haymaker in NH and missed and got knocked down instead. He did the right thing by admitting that his NH performance was his fault. However, he should not have been in that position in the first place. Christie had been telegraphing his assault days before the debate and Rubio did not have a Plan B when his preferred strategy failed. On the bright side, you know that the Dems would go after him on his record in November so better that he get bloodied now so he is better prepared in the future. The down side is that even though his bump was beginning to fall before the debate according to RCP polls, he fell more greatly after the debate. Time will tell whether Rubio can readjust his campaign, put the (lack of) experience/accomplishment issue away, and rally the establishment to him in the weeks ahead.
Rubio is still the “establishment’s” best hope for the liabilities that I have listed with Bush and Kasich. He will need to turn things around and knock out Bush in SC (Kasich can’t continue on). The problem is that Bush knows that the road to the nomination goes through Rubio and will focus on him in the weeks ahead. Trump and Cruz are happy to watch that go on. If Rubio can knock Bush out after SC, he can potentially rally the establishment behind him in the SEC primary. But after two thirds (IA, SC) or more (NV) and a 5th(NH), psychologically GOP voters may be moving toward Cruz and Trump. Moreover, the South is more conservative and less friendly to the “establishment” which should favor Cruz while the higher percentage of working class voters favors Trump.