Trump's First Year
By Sean Evans, Chair and Professor of Political Science
Jan 19, 2018 - As we approach Donald Trump’s first anniversary as president, Trump’s personality flaws continue to overshadow his accomplishments.
Trump’s accomplishments are clear and undeniable: 3% economic growth, rising productivity and consumer confidence, low unemployment, the defeat of ISIS in Iraq and Syria, 60% decrease in illegal border crossings, installation of conservative judges, the repeal of the Obamacare health insurance mandate, tax reform, an almost 50% cut in regulations, the elimination of President Obama’s constitutionally suspect executive actions, and increased military spending.
Yet, Trump’s approval ratings stand at 39% while his disapproval is 56%. No president in his first year in office has seen ratings this poor in modern polling history. While Trump may blame Democratic obstruction and a relentlessly negative press, obstruction is expected in these polarized times and Trump continues to give the press the ammunition with which to attack him. Moreover, voters had concerns with Trump before the election. In the 2016 exit polls, around 60% of voters thought Trump was unqualified, lacked the temperament to be president, and was dishonest. It was incumbent on Trump to prove these voters concerns were wrong but instead he has confirmed their fears.
While Trump excels at dominating news coverage, Trump’s undisciplined, inappropriate, and false tweets and comments undermine his presidency. First, his undisciplined nature means that the White House is reacting to his constantly changing whims rather than communicating a consistent message of Republicans creating a strong economy, making health care more affordable and pro-growth tax reform. Instead, Democrats win the messaging war with simple messages of Russian collusion, taking away health care from the poor and sick, and giving tax cuts to the rich.
Second, Trump’s actions make it difficult to persuade vulnerable Democrats. 10 Democratic Senators represent states Trump won and are up for reelection in 2018 which should make them ready to vote with Trump. Yet, his low approval, even in in red states, means that they can ignore his wishes.
Third, Americans don’t like partisan bickering and Trump excels at this. Plus, many of Trump’s comments disgust many Americans’ basic sense of decency and further erodes his support, especially among those who would otherwise support his policies.
The larger problem for Trump and Republicans is that his policy successes may be temporary. His inability to persuade Democrats means that Republicans have used reconciliation, which requires a majority vote, to advance their priorities and administrative actions rather than enacting laws through the regular process. The regular legislative process requires bills to clear the 60 vote hurdle in the Senate which means it has bipartisan support and is unlikely to be repealed. Bills passed by reconciliation can be repealed more easily and a new president can reinstate the executive actions he overturned and regulations he rescinded.
Moving forward, Trump’s toxic ratings mean Democrats are very likely to win the House this November and their chances of winning a majority in the Senate continue to rise. A Democratic Senate means fewer conservative judges while a Democratic House will investigate Trump relentlessly to drive him from office in 2020, if they don’t impeach him first.
A generic Republican with Trump’s accomplishments but not his baggage and who stayed on message would be around 50% approval with pliable Senate Democrats, a stronger legislative record, and better electoral prospects for himself and his party. Trump’s problem is ultimately Trump himself.
This column originally appeared in the January 19th edition of The Jackson Sun