The GOP Candidate Gender Gap
By Sean Evans, Chair and Professor of Political Science
Nov 26, 2018 -
The 2018 election ushered in 103 female members of the U.S. House, 23 female Senators (including Tennessee’s Marsha Blackburn), and nine female governors. However, Democrats made the largest gains electing 35 new women to the House, two new Senators, and six new governors. House Republicans saw their female representation decline by almost half. As a result, 87% of Congresswomen and 75% of female Senators will be Democrats.
A dilemma for Republicans is that half of the country is female but only 6% of House Republicans and 11% of Senate Republicans are female. Having more women helps the GOP reach more women voters, especially those who aren't Republican, in several ways. Symbolically, more female Republican office holders communicates to women the party is open to them. Second, women are more likely to trust decisions by office holders if they know women have a seat at the table. Third, men and women do not always think the same way so more women office holders ensure the party communicates its positions effectively to all votes. So why aren’t there more elected female Republicans?
First, the gender gap means that Democrats have a larger pool of potential female candidates. According to the PEW Foundation, more women identify as Democrats than Republicans (56%-37%) and more affluent, college educated individuals, the group most likely to run for office, identify as Democrat (58%-36%). Unsurprisingly then of the 27% of state legislators who are female, 2/3 are Democrats according to the Center for American Women and Politics. Since state legislators are the farm teams for higher office, Democratic will easily maintain their advantage of females in higher office.
Second, Republicans lack an infrastructure dedicated to electing women. Studies show that women need more encouragement to run. Democrats have teacher unions and feminist organizations that can encourage and provide female candidates while organizations like EMILY’s List are dedicated to encouraging women to run, training them, and helping them raise campaign funds. Recently, Republicans have tried catching up by creating Maggie’s List and Winning for Women but EMILY’s List outspent the two organizations tenfold ($5.8 million to $581,000) this election cycle according to OpenSecrets.org.
Third, the political cultures of the two parties differ. Democrats value identity politics which means Democrats will donate and vote for a candidate simply because she is a woman. However, being female may actually hurt Republican women. First, Republican women value family highly which means they are less likely to have the ambition or professional credentials, because of their focus on household and childcare responsibilities, to run. Second, Republicans value ideology more than identity. Since female Republicans are more moderate than male Republicans, many females believe they can’t win a primary and don’t run. Even if they do run, Republican voters believe they are more moderate – even if they are not – which hurts their chances of winning the primary.
Fourth, females Republicans are less likely to remain in Congress. As more moderate members in a more polarized Congress, they are less likely to be influential which reduces the benefits of serving which lead them to retire sooner. Second, moderate female Republicans are more likely to represent swing districts where their moderation is an advantage. However, these seats are more competitive and more likely to flip to Democrats.
Fifth, women are turned off by the nastiness of campaigns and do not want to endure it. Moreover, women are held to higher standards than men so that similar behavior by men is treated differently when done by a female. Conservative Republican women also have to endure more attacks because their agenda does not line up with what many consider the traditional female issues of abortion, education, and health care.
Republican leaders realize the need for more women candidates and are dedicated to increasing the number of female Republicans as demonstrated by Senate leaders rallying behind Blackburn in Tennessee and Martha McSally in Arizona, Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant appointing Cindy Hyde-Smith to the Senate, and House Republicans appointing Congresswoman Elise Stefanik (R-NY) to recruit more female candidates. The irony is that President Trump, the Metoo movement, and the Kavanaugh hearings may aid this endeavor as Republican leaders recruit female candidates to counter the harm caused by Trump's sexism. Regardless, a GOP with more Nikki Haleys, Joni Ernsts, Marsha Blackburns, and Diane Blacks in office would be a more successful political party.
This is a revised and expanded column that originally appeared in the Nov. 27th edition of The Jackson Sun