Fundamentals v Campaign Quality
By Sean Evans, Chair and Professor of Political Science
Sep 14, 2022 -
After a year of bad political news, Democrats are feeling more optimistic about their chances in the midterm elections while Republicans are worrying that weak nominees may cost them several Senate seats. The question is whether political fundamentals are more important than campaign quality.
Usually, the most important predictor of elections is the fundamentals as midterm elections are a referendum on the party in power. Politically, President Biden’s job approval rating is 42%. Since there is a strong correlation between presidential approval and midterm vote choice, this low number portends Republican gains. Moreover, Biden’s net job approval (percent approve minus percent disapprove) on major issues is disastrous as he is underwater on the economy (-20), foreign policy (-15), immigration (-23), inflation (-36), and crime (-22). Economically, consumer confidence is at near record lows, GDP has decreased in 2022, and real disposable income is down 4.5% over the last year.
With numbers this bad, how can Democrats be optimistic, and can that optimism be sustained? First, increases in Biden’s job approval and consumer confidence make Democrats hopeful the political environment is swinging in their direction. However, the increases are from record lows which means the numbers are still very bad and need to improve considerably. Yet, dramatic improvement is unlikely as it usually takes a long time and a lot of positive news for Americans to change their minds. Most of his improvement is simply firming up his base which has been aided by media coverage of issues that favor Democrats such as legislative victories, abortion, and negative coverage of Trump via the January 6 Committee and the seizure of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago.
Second, since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade, Democratic candidates have overperformed in special elections by 5% and risen to a tie with Republicans on the generic ballot test on whom voters want to control Congress. The Dobbs decision clearly mobilized Democrats. Yet, the Democrat’s turnout advantage is unlikely to be the same when more casual voters turnout in November. These voters are more concerned with economic issues which favor Republicans which is why polls of likely voters tend to favor Republicans by several points.
Third, Democratic candidates are significantly outperforming Biden’s approval ratings. Several of the Republicans in key Senate races are celebrities (e.g., Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania and Herschel Walker in Georgia), conspiracy theorists (e.g., Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania and Kari Lake in Arizona), and/or extremists who have never run before and make unforced errors or have views that are easy to attack. Consequently, Democrats are massively outraising them, have dominated the airwaves the past two years, and are outspending them by a 2-to-1 advantage. Yet, GOP SuperPACs should narrow this gap in the next two months as ads link Democrats to an unpopular Biden and economic struggles. The ability to narrow the campaign spending advantage is one reason that candidates rarely outperform the president’s job approval in the state by more than 5%. With Biden’s net approval at -10 or more in the battleground states, Democrats are in trouble.
Fundamentals determine most election outcomes but campaigns matter in close elections. Weak Republican candidates may help Democrats win seats that a stronger Republican would otherwise win. However, a shift in the environment from horrid to bad for Democrats is unlikely to prevent Republicans from taking the House but may limit their gains.
This column appeared in The Jackson Sun