Will Biden Face a Primary Challenge?
By Sean Evans, Chair and Professor of Political Science
Mar 12, 2023 -
Almost no one wants Joe Biden to run for reelection except Joe Biden. An Associated Press Poll shows that 22% of Americans and 37% of Democrats want Biden to run for reelection. Unsurprisingly, a recent Susquehanna Poll finds that Biden only wins the support of 27% of Democrats in a multicandidate primary field. The last president running for reelection without majority support within his party is Jimmy Carter. So, why isn’t Biden facing a serious primary challenge?
History suggests the president’s party loses the general election when the president faces a serious primary challenge as LBJ, Carter, and the elder Bush did. Since Democrats fear that a second Trump presidency would undermine democracy, Democrats are leery of challenging the one Democrat who defeated Trump and helping Republicans win in 2024.
Yet, this concern may be misplaced in our current political environment. Johnson, Carter, and Bush lost because their party was divided on policy and the president was unpopular due to economic and/or foreign policy problems. Biden does not face that problem. Democrats like his policies. They simply think that the 80-year-old Biden is too old. Moreover, partisans are so polarized that few Democrats are likely to vote Republican if another Democrat wins the nomination.
Furthermore, Democrats fear that “he who wields the knife never wears the crown.” This quote is from former British Defense Minister Michael Heseltine who challenged Margaret Thatcher’s party leadership in 1990. His challenge showed that Thatcher was vulnerable which led her to resign as prime minister. However, his challenge made it difficult to win Thatcher’s supporters which led Finance Minister John Major to replace her.
Multiple governors and Senators are quietly laying the groundwork to run if Biden chooses not to run. Yet, none are willing to primary Biden because they fear being attacked as a spoiler or too ambitious for not waiting their turn. However, the Heseltine adage is not necessarily true. Margaret Thatcher herself won the Conservative Party leadership by defeating former Prime Minister Ted Heath in 1975.
The more appropriate examples are Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. Seeing the elder Bush’s high popularity after Operation Desert Storm, party heavyweights like Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell and New York Governor Mario Cuomo declined to run which provided an opportunity for Clinton to win the Democratic nomination and the presidency. And first term Senator Barack Obama did not wait his turn in 2008.
The strategy for an ambitious Democrat is simple. First, compliment Biden on his presidency and run as the generational change candidate. The candidate should campaign non-stop in early states to show a contrast with the aged Biden. Since about 55-60% of Democrats are under 50 and 80-85% are under 65, the generational change argument has a natural constituency. Also, by not attacking Biden, the candidate can gain Biden supporters if he drops out.
Second, claim to be more electable. According to RealClearPolitics, Biden’s approval is 44%, his favorability is 41%, he is tied with Trump in 2024 polling, and Trump has led in almost 2/3 of polls in 2023. Biden is not in a strong electoral position and a younger Democrat would probably poll better by presenting a more positive contrast with Trump, who is almost as old as Biden.
Finally, even if the candidate loses, a strong showing in 2024 makes the candidate the leading contender in 2028.
William Plunkett of the Tammany Hall political machine once said, “I seen my opportunities and I took ‘em.” I suspect there is an ambitious Democrat who sees an opportunity and will try to take the nomination from Biden.
This column was submitted to the Jackson Sun on March 8