The Mandate Trap
By Sean Evans, Chair and Professor of Political Science
Dec 30, 2024 -
On election night, Donald Trump said, “America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate." This comment shows Trump, like many presidents before him, is falling prey to the mandate trap. In the mandate trap, the candidate wins because the incumbent is unpopular but thinks his victory is an endorsement of his policies. The win makes him overconfident and leads to ideological overreach which makes him unpopular.
Presidents claim mandates from the people to justify their actions and persuade Congress to pass their bills. But to claim a mandate, presidents need to clearly communicate their policies, voters must vote based on those policies, and the president must win overwhelmingly and bring many co-partisans to Congress. Trump was only clear on what he would do. He lacks a mandate because of his narrow victory, minimal coattails, and public opposition to many policies.
Trump’s claim to a mandate rests on his winning all seven swing states and the popular vote. The sweep of the swing states is impressive and explains Trump winning 58% of the Electoral College vote. However, while Trump won the popular vote, he did not win a majority (49.9%). His 1.5% margin over Vice President Harris ranks 43rd out of the last fifty presidential elections while his Electoral College vote ranks 35th. No majority vote and a close election is not a mandate.
Trump also lacks coattails. Republicans gained four Senate seats but three were from red states they should win. Republicans only won one of the five swing state Senate seats (Pennsylvania). House Republicans lost one seat and will have the smallest majority since 1931.
Fox News Exit Polls suggest that Trump primarily won because 42% of Americans approved of the Biden-Harris Administration and 70% of Americans thought America was headed in the wrong direction. While 52% thought Trump had the right policies, Americans only favored his policies on the economy, immigration, crime, and free speech. Most Americans preferred Democrats on women’s rights, abortion, race, health care, vaccines, providing aid to Ukraine, guns, energy, climate change, and the role of government. Yet, even in the areas where Americans trust Trump more, a majority oppose deporting most immigrants, and Americans are split on tariffs.
Trump’s victory was surely personally gratifying after two impeachments, a felony conviction, an assassination attempt, and other indictments. However, he lacks a broad policy mandate. At most, he has a mandate to reduce inflation, secure the border, reform asylum laws, and cut government waste. If he prioritizes these issues and delivers positive results, Trump and the GOP will reap the political benefit. However, if he goes full MAGA, Trump’s support will decline because only 36% of Americans identify with MAGA.
Trump should learn from President Biden who misread his mandate. Biden won the election due to Trump fatigue and the COVID pandemic. Democrats lost 13 House seats but won the Senate because Trump’s lies about stolen votes depressed the Republican vote in Georgia and led Democrats to win two Senate seats in a runoff. With this modest victory, Biden decided to be a transformational president who spent $3.6 trillion on Democratic environmental, health, and social priorities, tried to kill the filibuster to pass progressive legislation, pursued open borders, and pushed very liberal social policy. The resulting backlash was predictable.
The secret to winning elections is simple. If you deliver on the core economic and social priorities of most Americans, you win. If you focus on the narrow ideological demands of party activists, you lose. If Trump does the former, he can solidify and increase his support and make the GOP the governing majority. If he does the latter, as many of his cabinet appointments suggest, he will fall into the mandate trap, lose popularity, and return Democrats to power.
This column appeared in the December 30th edition of The Jackson Sun