Political Science

On Tuesday night, American voters punished President Bush and the Republicans by electing Barak Obama and sending the GOP to back to back double digit losses for the first time since the Great Depression.

 

Clearly, the public was very angry at George W. Bush and the Republicans for their real and perceived incompetence (Iraq, Katrina, not preventing the financial crisis, etc.), corruption (e.g., Ted Stevens), and the abandonment of principle (more spending, higher deficits, etc.).  And the public took its anger out on John McCain and Congressional Republicans.

 

George W. Bush has the longest sustained low approval (20s and 30s) in polling history and his disapproval damaged the GOP brand. Exit polls show that 51% of the public strongly disapproved of Bush and 82% of them voted for Obama. Overall, 71% of the public disapproved of Bush’s performance and voted for Obama 67%-31%.

 

McCain fought against this anti-Bush wave and was neck-and-neck with Obama until the financial crisis. That became the tipping point as voters blamed Bush and the GOP for the economic crisis and the problems facing the nation. Polls showed that 63% of the public said that the economy was the most important issue that determined their vote and Obama won this group 53%-44%. The next most important issue was Iraq at 10%. There has never been such a gap in polling history over what was most important. And an economic crisis always hurts the incumbent party.

 

The GOP also took it on the chin in the congressional races. They lost 19 Hose seats (but trail in two more) and six Senate seats (with three undecided but leaning Republican). This means that the GOP has lost 55 House seats and 12 Senate seats in the past two elections bringing them to their lowest total in almost twenty years.

 

We also have to give Obama credit for running a disciplined campaign with the correct message for the campaign. He saw the public tired of the partisanship, Bush, the war, and the economy and used his message and his persona so that the public identified him with change. He aided his party by raising over $700 million dollars and the ads that he ran and the organization that he developed allowed him to take advantage of his opportunity to win the Kerry states, several Republican states like CO, FL, IN, NC, OH, and VA and put more into play. By playing on McCain’s turf, he forced McCain to spend time defending Republican turf instead of going after swing states. Thus, it is no surprise that Obama won an overwhelming electoral college victory and made history as the United States’ first African-American president.