Predictions for 2015
Posted Jan 8, 2015
Continuing a tradition began last year, Department faculty have made predictions for what will occur in 2015 so be sure to print out the predictions and see how well the faculty do over the course of 2015. Here are their predictions:
Micah Watson’s Predictions
1. Chris Christie will have a major comeback and will be one of the central 2015 players for 2016. “A Bridge Too Far” will be a prominent meme for his opposition.
2. Ben Carson will continue to pursue the GOP nomination, and Jeb Bush will announce he hopes to become a neurosurgeon by 2016.
3. Dr. Evans’ integrity will force him to change the UU Bracket Challenge password such that it does not denigrate the PAC 12 given that the SEC is not the best or even second best conference in the country in the 2014-15 season.
4. Same-sex marriage and religious liberty cases will still garner court headlines, though the results will be less uniform than in years past.
5. Vladimir Putin will not appear shirtless in public for the entire year.
Greg Ryan’s Predictions
1. ISIS will continue to fester, launching surprise attacks on Sunni areas when it believes US and other Western states have let their guard down. Pressure for US ground troops will build and eventually some will be sent.
2. The Russian economy will not collapse nor significantly improve. Russia will negotiate more economic deals with China and other smaller states in Eurasia.
3. Turkey will move toward full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
4. Southeastern European states, having lost a Russian gas pipeline deal, will suffer greater economic calamity and this will benefit right wing parties.
Sean Evans’ Predictions
1. Common Core standards will be repealed in multiple states and replaced with standards that look a lot like Common Core. With 30 state legislatures controlled by Republicans, there will be a lot of talk about repealing Common Core or “Obamacore” to Tea Party supporters. While Obamacore may be an effective rallying cry for repeal, the need for standards will remain and so the new standards that the legislatures adopt will be similar to the Common Core standards with the most controversial standards replaced.
2. The Supreme Court will uphold the Obama Administration’s interpretation of the Affordable Care Act in King v Burwell so that individuals in states that did not set up exchanges may receive subsidies.
3. No candidate from Massachussetts will run for president. The darling of progressive elites, Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), will not challenge Hilary Clinton for the Democratic nomination for president because of the widespread institutional support for Clinton combined with the fact that the elite, progressive candidate (e.g., Bill Bradley in 2000, Howard Dean in 2004) rarely wins the nomination. Obama is exception because he could appeal to African-Americans and combine that support with elites to win.
Mitt Romney, the 2012 GOP nominee, will also not run in spite of rumors. Romney may look good in comparison to President Obama today but Romney still suffers from all the problems from 2012 (couldn't connect, gaffes, not trusted by conservatives). Plus, Romney was the best of a meager set of candidates in 2012. The A Team of Republicans (e.g., Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, John Kasich) is considering running in 2016 for which Romney will not be as attractive compared to the 2012 group.
4. President Obama will have approval near 50% for most of the year. The improving economy should finally reach individual consumers which will allow the president to claim credit for the recovery. Moreover, the president will spend most of 2015 playing defense by opposing the most unpopular parts of Republican proposals making the Republican Congress and the slow moving Congress the main political story.
5. Dr. Evans is unlikely to change the UU Bracket Challenge password because the SEC is still the dominant conference in college football. Dr. Watson unfortunately suffers from selection bias by focusing on the SEC’s 7-5 bowl record in 2014. However, the plural of ancedote is data. The clear trend shows SEC dominance as the SEC has won 6 of the last 8 MNCs and has played in 7 of the last 8 championship games. Moreover, Dr. Watson selectively uses data to back up his point. A more objective assessment justifies the use of the password. The SEC is still atop the ESPN power rankings as the difference between the Big 12 and SEC is .1 while the PAC 12 is 7 points behind in third. The SEC has more teams in the AP Top 25 at the end of the year than any other conference and this is unlikely to change in the final rankings. The SEC placed 12 teams in bowls for the largest number and largest percentage of conference teams in a bowl (86%). While the SEC was probably not as strong as in past years, the 2014 bowl season is an outlier in the general trend of SEC dominance which justifies the continued use of the UU Bracket Challenge password.