Rapoport Explains "Why Trump" at Constitution Day
Posted Sep 20, 2016
Last night, Ron Rapoport, the John Marshall Professor of Political Science at the College of William & Mary, spoke to over 70 students, faculty, and community members on the rise of Trump and what he means for our constitutional order. His basic thesis is that the United States has a political culture and system (polarization) that conflicts with our constitutional system that requires compromise.
Rapoport began by discussing the constitutional system. With the failure of the Articles of Confederation, those at the Constitutional Convention, representing those who favored a strong central government and those who favored strong states, resorted to ambiguity and compromse to develop a Constitution that all could accept. The Constitution that the Founders developed and the country approved has several components that ensured that it would be difficult to pass legislation. The fear of tyranny led to the separation of powers that made it more difficult for a stronger central government to act while expanding the size of the republic increased the number of factions which could compete with each other to prevent one faction from gaining too much power. Moreover because the Founders feared a demagogue, they created a system of filtration, through the Electoral College and state legislative election of U.S. Senators, to refine and enlarge the public views and prevent a demagogue from gaining power. Finally, the whole system of dividing power among the different branches of government and between the federal and state government promotes compromise and incremental policy making.
Fast forward to today, the U.S. has a polarized public and a polarized Congress. Over the past 50 years, voters have sorted into the two parties as liberals have moved to the Democratic Party and conservatives to the Republican Party. Each party is now more ideologically cohesive since the turn of the 20th Century. Moreover, the sorting leads individuals from the opposind sides to interact less with the other which leads each to view those with differing views as evil or threats. These changes among the public, or at least among party activists, has led to the same polarization among elected officials.
The result of a divided public is a divided government that is unable to pass legislation to deal with problems facing the nation. As a result of this division, the two sides disagree about the major problems facing the country and the correct solution which means that compromise is very difficult, if not impossible. The inability to compromise is made worse by competitive congressional and presidential elections. With each side having a very good chance of winning, both sides have an incentive to obstruct the other in hopes of gaining power. The result is more unilateral action by the president as he issues executive orders, presidential memorandums, and other actions that avoid the legislative branch and the compromises that would be required to be made. States, largely led by Republicans, then use their power to sue the federal government and to preempt local government action that they oppose.
This distrust and government gridlock produces frustration and anger. Americans are upset about the economy as median household income is 8% lower than it was before the recession and 9% lower than it was in 1999. With government unable to act to do something about this, Americans seek a disruptive leader who is "willing to break some rules if that's what it takes to set things right." The public also seeks simple answers to problems when our complex problems have neither simple causes or solutions.
This desire for a strong leader and simple solutions has led to the rise of Trump. If you look at Trump compared to his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination, Trump fits neither the Tea Party or the establishment. His political views are different from each candidate and distinct from the GOP in genera. He scores the highest on authoritarianism (desire for a strong leader), nativism (concern with America), and economic liberalism. This combination of interests is contrary to traditional Republian ideology and poses potential problems for him. Moreover, his ideological views are distinct from many of his rivals. Yet, GOP primary voters still ranked Trump higher than his rivals and considered Trump a better candidate compared to each of his rivals. In fact, more Republicans thought Trump was more electable than any other Republican primary candidate.
Ending his talk, Rapoport doesn't see things improving much. Polarization is increasing, and Trump's potential win, would probably increase polarization. This polarization will make it much more difficult for the two parties to compromise which means that American politics will remain a misfit with our constitutional system.