How Well Did Faculty Predict 2014?
Posted Jan 5, 2015
Last year, the Department faculty started a tradition by making predictions for the year. So how well did the department do with their 2014 predictions?
Both Drs. Baker and Evans did well with their electoral picks as both predicted the GOP wave a year before it materialized. Both picked Republicans to take the Senate with Dr. Evans correctly picking 7 of the pick-ups, an 8th with his mention of Colorado being in play with a strong candidate which appeared with Rep. Cory Gardner entrance in February. Dr. Baker was also correct about the Republican gains in the House and Nancy Pelosi’s decision not to retire. Dr. Evans correctly predicted that no Senator would fall to a Tea Party challenge and correctly predicted 60% of his governor pick-ups though he did not see the MA and MD GOP victories.
Dr. Baker did well with his pick that the Religious Freedom Restoration Act would wreak havoc as the Supreme Court upheld Hobby Lobby’s religious claims in Hobby Lobby v Burwell. However, he was incorrect on his prediction that Justice Ginsburg or another justice would retire giving President Obama another appointment to the Supreme Court before a potential Republican Senate take over.
Dr. Evans correctly predicted a majority of states representing a majority of the population would live in states that allow same sex marraige due to court rulings. Now, there are 35 states that the District of Columbia where same sex marriage is legal. He was also correct that insurance premiums would not rise much for 2015 but not for the correct reasons as the provisions of the ACA that would allow the Administration to bail out insurance companies were not used to affect provisions.
Dr. Ryan was correct that Japanese PM Abe would face difficulties due to economic problems but the fact that Abe has no credible opposition allowed him to win a larger majority in the Diet in recent elections. Dr. Ryan expected the US to make an agreement with Iran that did not materialize but the extension of talks and the Obama Administration’s willingness to make a deal may lead to a correct prediction for 2015. Finally while Egypt struggles, it is not involved in a low grade civil war with the Muslim Brotherhood.